Tuesday, January 1, 2013

2013 Predictions

I was quite ill this time last year and so didn't get my annual prediction post up.
Here we go for 2013!

Google

Google Glass

Google Glasses will dominate the presentations at Google IO, although developers won't actually have their samples.
There will be no retail product in 2013.
Mobile connectivity will prove to be a problem. We can't all have a team of people with parabolic WiFi antennas, so using the glasses "in the wild," will  be of limited appeal.

Google Fiber

Google will fully provision the Kansas City "fiberhoods" months ahead of schedule and hold a second round of neighborhood sign-ups.
They will announce the next two cities to get Google Fiber with registrations opening up 2014.
There will be solid rumors, but no announcements, of a Wireless service from Google.

Social

Google Plus will continue to be popular with the nerd crowd, but make little progress against Facebook.
Google Search will announce a new deal allowing better coverage of Facebook or Twitter.

YouTube

The "channel" model and algorithmic curation will prove to be unpopular with viewers, and before the end of the year, YouTube will be restructured around individual shows and personalities.
Even though I predicted it years ago, and I've been wrong, I still think YouTube will pick up a cancelled TV show. I think it's much more possible this year now that NetFlix has picked up Arrested Development. It will be a challenge to find a traditional television show that can operate within a new media budget, but it will eventually happen. Why not this year?
We will see new YouTube apps for set-top devices, televisions and possibly a dedicated YouTube box.

Apple

No Apple Television

Broadcasters will not play ball and Apple will not be able to put together the licenses needed to launch the television product in 2013.

iPhone & iPod

Apple will drop the iPod nano and introduce two new form factors for the iPhone. One of which will asymmetrical.
Apple Maps will continue to be a sore spot.

Microsoft

Windows 8/RT

RT will be a retail disaster. Consumers will buy a "Windows" product that doesn't have windows and that doesn't run existing Windows software.
Enterprise will ignore Windows 8 for years. For companies that finally moved off of Windows XP, Windows 7 is working fine.
Windows 8 will be very popular on laptops.

Hardware

Next gen console will be announced and demoed. Shipping in 2014.
Surface tablet will be discontinued. Other hardware manufacturers will be reluctant to make their own versions.

Facebook

I've been wrong many times predicting a flattening of Facebook's growth.  So let's just assume it will continue to grow...
Facebook will buy a media production company to create proprietary content for Facebook members.

Transportation

Electrics

No significant increase in sales of electric and hybrid cars in the US.

Autonomous Vehicles

Most states will have laws on the books allowing autonomous vehicles by the end of 2013.

Crazy-Ass Wildcards


  • Makerbot Industries or another 3D Printer company will open a store in The Mall of America.
  • Turnips will be the next big food trend.
  • 50 Shades of Gray will finally fall from the Amazon Top 10 list.
  • Another popular dinosaur will be removed from the official list.
  • SpaceX will announce a launch date for a manned moon orbit mission.



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