Thursday, January 21, 2010

Evaluating the 2009 Predictions

At the beginning of 2009, I posted the obligatory predictions.Let's see how I did:

Increase in dog ownership
Up. way up. But oddly, cats even more.

Decline in Cable viewership
Yup. Viewers are down. But revenue is up. If you're still watching cable, you're getting ripped off.

The End of Twitter.
Not really. I assumed we'd see some sort of message discrimination in Twitter. The implementation of trends and lists certainly count towards this prediction, but I will count this as a "miss" since I really expected a larger change.

Edgar Allen Poe craze in Hollywood
Complete miss. James McTeigue started The Raven, but that's about it. Free stuff and Hollywood let it pass by.

Independent Media Productions
Mixed.
TWiT network really came on like gangbusters in 2009. In fact, that one "network" accounts for over half of my video viewing.
A number of terrific YouTube channels got popular in 2009.
We're seeing all of this programming become available on regular TVs with the Roku box and TVs with Yahoo Widgets.
Growth was huge, but we're not seeing penetration into the general TV-viewing public yet.

The End of "Trickle-Down Economics"
Refuses to die. Just this morning I was listening to a report that pointed out that businesses aren't spending. Of course, they're not. No sensible person will spend until they've replenished the reserves. Which adds a lot of friction to money flowing downstream.
Opinion on this topic seems to have changed, but policy has not.
"A rising yacht does not lift the tide."

Beginning of Free Energy
My prediction was that policies would be put in place that will us down the cheap energy in the United States.
That part seems to be correct.
The political battle is taking longer than expected, so that's disappointing.

Automotive Status Quo (With at least one company bankruptcy)
Nailed it.
No electric car for me. Detroit still looking almost as dumb as Hollywood.
Ford is actually embracing the Film model with high-tech gimmicks to entice customers to buy their evolutionary products.

The End of Tubes
Flat screens now account for all new TV sales, and one-half of American households now have an HDTV.  Not quite the universal adoption I was expecting, so I'll count that as "mixed."

Increased attendance at Farmer's Markets
Definitely true for the few markets I could get numbers from.
Many cities added more Farmers Markets in 2009.
This trend was already underway, so I don't think we can say the down economy was the reason people headed to the Farmers Markets in record numbers last year.

In my predictions for things We Won't See in 2009, I included "a competitor to the iPhone."
Almost made it! The Motorola Droid snuck in at the end of the year and was widely considered as the first legitimate iPhone competitor.


Most of the prediction were "half true." Two were clearly correct, and three were complete misses. At 40%, I did way better than most people who stuck their necks out with silly predictions.

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